Truly Likely Voters: A Revolution in Political Engagement
Redefiniting Traditional Propensity Metrics
Traditional campaign orthodoxy has often pigeonholed voters based on their participation in the last few elections, using this as the primary metric for whom to contact. Folks in politics have heard over and over, “only contact the 4-out-of-4 or 3-out-of-4 voters. Everything else is a waste.” These, however, may not be voters that will come out for your specific election.
The modern voter is influenced by a multitude of factors that go beyond their voting history. Some new voters may be listed as voting in all eligible elections, even if they’ve only been able to vote in one election; some voters may have voted regularly in their last county, but after moving, stopped voting; and some voters may have changed parties, resetting their original registration date.
Registered voters (42,404) vs
Truly Likely Voters (20,038)
Go To The Next Level with the “Truly Likely Voter” Score
Recognizing the need for a more nuanced approach, Voter.Vote introduces the Truly Likely Voter, an AI-based propensity score. The Truly Likely Score (TLV) score isn’t just a digit; it’s a holistic measure that takes into account a wide variety of data points to predict a voter’s likelihood of turning out. Firstly, it looks at a voter’s entire history, not just recent behavior. Some voters might be motivated by specific issues or candidates, and their participation can fluctuate based on these changes. By taking a comprehensive look, we capture these voters who might be newly motivated or re-engaged after periods of absence.
An example where this is critical is of two different 3-out-of-4 voters. One voted in 3 out of the last 4 elections and the other voted in 3 previous elections but not the last one. We score the 3 out of the last 4 elections voter higher.
Demographics, too, play a significant role. Age, socioeconomic status, educational attainment, and ethnicity, among others, can provide insights into a voter’s priorities and propensity to vote. By analyzing these aspects in tandem with geographical data and local issues, the TLV score provides a clearer picture of the voter landscape.
Furthermore, the specific contest or election also matters. Not all elections are created equal in the eyes of the electorate. Some may be more polarized or have higher stakes, leading to different voter behavior. Our AI model assimilates data from similar past contests and adjusts propensity scores accordingly.
Does it work?
See the difference?
What “Truly Likely Voter” Means For Your Campaign
In short, this is a game-changing tactic. Instead of focusing solely on ‘4 / 4’, your campaign will now have a dynamic and data-rich model guiding your outreach. This ensures that you aren’t just preaching to the choir, but tapping into potential reservoirs of support previously overlooked. In an age where every vote counts, the Truly Likely Voter score is an indispensable tool, breaking away from outdated models and providing an innovative, comprehensive, and accurate forecast of voter behavior.
Don’t miss out on potential voters by using traditional outreach methods. Let Voter.Vote help you identify and reach the truly likely voters in your contest. Sign up today.
FAQs
FAQ on Reaching Truly Likely Voters
We use Artificial Intelligence to create a Propensity Score, the Truly Likely Voter Score. Most consultants tell you just focus your outreach to voters that voted three or more times in the last four elections, but this information fails to take into consideration other factors that could determine what makes a person more likely to vote. Using the “last four” model also could waste resources on voters who have moved, passed away, or were already planning on voting regardless of your outreach.
We score folks from 100 (Very likely to vote in your contest) to zero (highly unlikely to vote in your contest), allowing you to decide how deep to send your outreach and therefore maximize the funds you have available.
Using data from past elections, data about your specific contest, and data about the voters in your area, we have created an Artificial Intelligence model that predicts when voters of different demographics are likely to vote. The insights provided by this model can help you time your outreach for just when voters are likely to cast their ballots, maximizing engagement while minimizing costs.
Timing is everything in the world of voter outreach. Too soon: they might forget. Too late: they’ve already voted. Navigating these waters requires accurate planning and precision. With our services, you’ll be in tune with your audience’s pulse, ensuring your message lands exactly when it should. Let’s make every moment count, building lasting connections and driving election success. Connect with us to connect with victory!
No! Someone who missed the earliest election but voted in the following three is very different than someone someone who missed the most recent election but voted in the prior three. Our propensity to vote scoring takes this and other factors into consideration.
Absolutely – see below.
