Truly Likely Voters: A Revolution in Political Engagement
Redefiniting Traditional Propensity Metrics
Traditional campaign orthodoxy has often pigeonholed voters based on their participation in the last few elections, using this as the primary metric for whom to contact. Folks in politics have heard over and over, “only contact the 4-out-of-4 or 3-out-of-4 voters. Everything else is a waste.” These, however, may not be voters that will come out for your specific election.
Modern voter is influenced by a multitude of factors that go beyond their voting history. A first example of that is the newly registered voter who might only have voted once but voted in every election they are eligible for. A second example is the voters who voted in their old county every time, but are not recognized in their new county for not having voted at all. A final example is someone who changes parties, which resets their original registration date.
Registered voters vs highly likely voters
Go To The Next Level with the “Truly Likely Voter” Score
Recognizing the need for a more nuanced approach, Voter.Vote introduces the Truly Likely Voter, an AI-based propensity score. The Truly Likely Score (TLV) score isn’t just a digit; it’s a holistic measure that takes into account a wide variety of data points to predict a voter’s likelihood of turning out. Firstly, it looks at a voter’s entire history, not just recent behavior. Some voters might be motivated by specific issues or candidates, and their participation can fluctuate based on these changes. By taking a comprehensive look, we capture these voters who might be newly motivated or re-engaged after periods of absence.
A example is of two 3-out-of-4 voters. One voted in 3 out of the last 4 elections and the other vote in 3 previous elections but not the last one. We score the 3 out of the last 4 elections voter higher. Another example are voters who only vote in general elections but vote in every general election.
Demographics, too, play a significant role. Age, socioeconomic status, educational attainment, and ethnicity, among others, can provide insights into a voter’s priorities and propensity to vote. By analyzing these aspects in tandem with geographical data and local issues, the TLV score provides a clearer picture of the voter landscape.
Furthermore, the specific contest or election also matters. Not all elections are created equal in the eyes of the electorate. Some may be more polarized or have higher stakes, leading to different voter behavior. Our AI model assimilates data from similar past contests and adjusts propensity scores accordingly. A clear example is someone who always votes in a primary or only in contested presidential elections.
Does it work?
See the difference?
What “Truly Likely Voter” Means For Your Campaign
In short, this is a game-changing tactic. Instead of focusing solely on ‘4 / 4’ your campaign will now have a dynamic and data-rich model guiding your outreach. This ensures that you aren’t just preaching to the choir, but are also tapping into potential reservoirs of support previously overlooked. In an age where every vote counts, the Truly Likely Voter score is an indispensable tool, breaking away from outdated models and providing an innovative, comprehensive, and accurate forecast of voter behavior.
Don’t miss out on potential voters by using traditional outreach methods. Let Voter.Vote help you identify and reach the truly likely voters in your contest. Sign up today.
FAQs
FAQ on Reaching Truly Likely Voters
We use Artificial Intelligence — of the kind Chat GPT is based on — to create a Propensity Score, the Truly Likely Voter. Most consultants tell you just focus your outreach to those that have voted in the last 4 elections. This information fails to take into consideration other factors that could determine what makes a person more likely to vote. Using the “last four” model also could waste resources on voters who have moved, those who have passed away, and those who were already planning on voting regardless of your voter outreach.
Examples of people who are missed by traditional rules include those that always vote when there is a woman running, those that vote in your contest because they always vote in school board races but not all the other contests on the ballot, and those that vote in presidential years only.
We score folks from 100 (Very likely to vote in your contest) to zero (highly unlikely to vote in your contest). This allows you to decide how deep to do outreach if you have additional funds available.
The Truly Like Voter™ is an incredibly useful tool when it comes to determining the likelihood of people to vote in your contest. With a range of 100 to zero, it provides a clear and comprehensive picture of those who are most likely to vote, and those who are not. And with additional resources at your disposal, you can further expand your reach by increasing your advertising spend. This can be done in a login manner, ensuring that your message is presented to the right people, at the right time. By utilizing the Truly Like Voter™ in conjunction with other marketing strategies, you can effectively boost your outreach and maximize your efforts to encourage people to vote in your contest. So why not take advantage of this powerful resource today and see the difference it can make for your next contest?
At Voter.Vote, we have been able to leverage our vast experience, data analytics and cutting-edge technology to provide our clients with accurate predictions about the outcome of past elections. Our team of experts meticulously goes through historical data from previous elections, examines different variables that may impact the results, and then uses that knowledge to model possible outcomes of current elections.
We know that predicting election results can be a challenging task, but with years of experience and a deep understanding of the data, we have been able to provide our clients with reliable and accurate predictions. By constantly updating our models and staying up-to-date with the latest developments in election technology, we are able to stay ahead of the curve and deliver superior results.
Timing is everything in the world of voter outreach. Too soon? They might forget. Too late? They’ve already voted. Navigating these waters requires sharp strategy and precision. With our services, you’ll be in tune with your audience’s pulse, ensuring your message lands exactly when it should. Let’s make every moment count, building lasting connections and driving election success. Connect with us to connect with victory!
No! Someone who voted in the last three elections and missed the one before is very different than someone who missed the last election but voted in the three before that. Our propensity to vote scoring take this and other factors (for example always votes in primaries) into consideration.